In Defense of Ray Ray

It's not your fault, Ray. Keep smiling.

Mercifully for the Boston Celtics, the All Star break has come. For a team of 30-somethings on a downward slide, the hiatus brings five days of rest they need more than Glenn Beck needs a case of permanent laryngitis. Unfortunately, the break also brings several days without basketball for fans and pundits alike to enter full-scale panic mode and offer their unsolicited advice for how to right this apparently sinking ship. The advent of the NBA “trade machine” has fueled the fire, and some of the trade proposals posted by the likes of Bill Simmons are as wild as they are fun. Trouble is, it seems like fans are taking them all seriously. Of all the rumors and proposals circulating, none has been more consistent than the call to trade Ray Allen and his expiring contract. I live in San Diego now but sprung for the NBA League Pass, and have watched every game this season. I also went to the University of Connecticut from 1994-2000 (two degrees, I wasn’t on the Tommy Boy plan) and watched Ray Allen play for three years, and have tracked his career closely through Milwaukee and Seattle. *Cool side note: I actually got to hang out with Ray in 1996 when he was tops in the NCAA, heading to the mall with him and my friend Brian for a few hours. For what it’s worth, he is the nicest guy you could hope to meet. A few months later, I bumped into him on campus and didn’t expect him to remember me from one night, and I was shocked when he looked up and said, “what’s up, Steve?”. My friends sat there, speechless, wondering who the hell I was and how I was boys with Ray. It was the coolest I’ve ever felt in my life. And it’s been all downhill from there. I include this in the spirit of full disclosure as perhaps I am a bit biased in the Ray Allen trade discussions….* For the life of me, I can’t understand how anyone who has watched every Celtics game could possibly think that we should start trying to fix our woes by trading Ray. There’s no data to back it up, and if we break down the points below, I think it becomes more than obvious.

Point 1: “Ray has an expiring contract and he’s getting paid over $18M per year”. And? Let me explain something to all of you who don’t know much about Boston. Ray has a daughter in high school and a son with juvenile diabetes. It didn’t take him long to realize that as a father there is no better place for his kids to be than in the Boston-area school system (with great universities waiting in the wings) and right next to the best medical facilities in the world. He has publicly stated that he wants to stay in Boston and that he’s going to accept a significant pay cut, because he’s made a ton of money already in his career, loves Boston, and thinks he can help win more championships with the team. If he was making noise about wanting to test the market, ok, the “expiring contract” argument would be valid, but his overtures on taking a hometown discount means Ainge would be nuts to trade him now.

Point 2: “Ray is 34 and the stats show that shooting guards decline quickly after age 35”. Fair point, and you really have to have faith in a shooting guard’s conditioning and ability to project that he is special and would buck the trend. Ray Allen is special. Since I started watching him in 1993, I noticed that the guy doesn’t sweat. Even today, his actions seem effortless, he’s got lots of energy at the end of games even as he piles on minutes, and is playing solid defense on some top players. Get his minutes down (see below), and his % will go up and stay up. If you think Ray can’t play 30 minutes a game and drain threes for several years to come, you haven’t paid attention to his career. Another point people miss is that shooting guards get better as they shoot more shots. It was only three years ago that Ray dumped 54 points in a game after getting into a groove, and he did the same last year against Chicago when he was unconscious in draining threes with guys in his face. Unselfishness is not always a great quality in a shooting guard, and on the current team the offense increasingly runs through Pierce, especially in the 4th quarter of games when it’s all isolation all the time.

Point 3: “We need a young guy who can give us more quality minutes”. More minutes? Up until last week, Ray was #24 in the NBA in minutes played and had the most minutes played on the Celtics. With Garnett and Pierce out for several games, Ray has played in all but one game and is averaging almost 37 minutes a game. See the +/- below for proof of the quality of his minutes. Everyone agrees that getting his minutes down will improve his shooting percentages this year. For some reason, trade advocates can’t seem to extrapolate that out into season to come.

Point 4: “We need a major move to mix things up and fix the chemistry on this team”. Did you see last night’s game without Ray? The Celtics lost to a Paul-less Hornets thanks in large part to an obscene number of turnovers, a product of sloppy passing in crowded areas due to lack of spacing on the court, spacing that Ray Allen creates by constantly running defenders outside the arc. More importantly, Ray is #11 in the NBA in the +/- category (indicator of how beneficial/detrimental it is to have a player on the court), well ahead of all other Celtics players. If you’re looking to tinker with chemistry, taking a guy who is tops in minutes played and +/- is not where you want to start.

Point 5: “We need Garnett’s defense and Pierce is the heart and soul of the Celtics, so it’s got to be Ray if we trade”. People that say this are making the same mistake as people who claim to have been best friends with their college roommate for 20 years even though they haven’t talked more than twice since graduation. I would say, “has he been your best friend for 20 years, or was he your best friend 20 years ago?” Look, I love Pierce for what he’s done for the Celtics and will always be in awe of the player Garnett has been. They deserve nothing but love and respect from Celtics fans, but let’s face the obvious. Garnett is a shadow of himself. He can’t jump, he can’t defend like he used to (see Rashard Lewis drive among others), and his jumper has been inconsistent. Pierce is predictably relying on the “flailing screaming draw-a-foul drive” to get to the line. He’s slower than he’s ever been, he’s more injury prone, and though his 3-pt % is off the charts this year his career stats don’t support him carrying that into the future. Neither are in the shape Ray is in or will be in for years to come, which is important on offense but even more important on defense. Big bodies break down faster than talentless socialites chunk out grainy sex tapes, and the evidence is starting to mount. Do you trade one of these guys now while they still have value? I don’t know, I’d love to take one more shot at this season with them, but Ainge and Doc will make that call. Trading Ray and keeping them, however, will go down as one of the poorer decisions in Celtics history.

So where does that leave us? First, let’s assume that they keep both Pierce and Garnett, despite their likelihood to break down quickly over time. Let’s all agree that Rondo and Perkins are the future of the franchise, and that nobody but Kevin McHale (bless his soul and wooly mammoth armpits) would trade them at this point. Outside of those two, EVERYONE is on the table. You trade Marquis only if it is a SWEET deal for you. You might keep Tony Allen for defense, but could trade him for someone who can hit jumpers and FTs. Eddie “toe-on-the-line” House is more than expendable with his inability to defend his own shadow more than outweighing his precision on long two pointers. Wallace will be impossible to move, but Doc could order him to the post and fine him $50K for every three pointer he hoists. Glen “Thumb-o” aka “don’t call me Big Baby” Davis has some trade value and could be moved IF we can also include Brian “Big Red” Scalabrini or Shelden “DNP” Williams and if we can get a competent athletic big man in return.

Which leaves Ray Ray. Danny and Doc, please don’t trade him. If you’re going to try to win with the current crew, do it with the Big 5, not the Big 4. If you must tinker, find a backup point guard who can guard Jamal Crawford and handle the ball late in games when you can’t afford to have Rondo bricking FTs that could ice games. Find another three-point shooter who’s tall and quick enough to play defense and who actually knows that stepping on the three point line means the basket counts for two. Please watch that Hornets game from last night and get a vision of what life will be like without Ray here to draw defenders out and play selfless team basketball now and in the playoffs. I beg you.

Oh, and Ray, while you’re here, keep shooting.